US Open 2026: biggest upsets and breakout stars

Last updated: September 21, 2026

Quick Answer: The US Open 2026 delivered some of the most dramatic results in recent Grand Slam history. Mariano Navone’s first-round demolition of Novak Djokovic stands as the tournament’s defining shock, while Ben Shelton’s run to the final and Elena Rybakina’s title victory over Aryna Sabalenka confirmed that a new generation has fully arrived at Flushing Meadows.

Key Takeaways

• 🎾 Biggest upset: Mariano Navone defeated 24-time major champion Novak Djokovic in five sets in Round 1 [14]
• 🏆 Men’s champion: Alexander Zverev beat Ben Shelton 6-3, 7-6, 5-7, 6-2 in the final [3]
• 🏆 Women’s champion: Elena Rybakina defeated top seed Aryna Sabalenka 6-4, 5-7, 6-2 [3]
• ⚡ Breakout men’s star: Ben Shelton reached his first Grand Slam final on home soil [3]
• ⚡ Breakout women’s star: Qinwen Zheng upset No. 8 seed Iga Świątek and advanced deep into the draw [9]
• 📈 Rising talent: Belgian Alexander Blockx upset Francisco Cerúndolo and reached the second week [9]
• 🇺🇸 American depth: Iva Jovic’s run as No. 14 seed highlighted the strength of emerging US women’s tennis [7]
• 🔄 Generational shift: Early exits by icons like Djokovic signaled a clear changing of the guard [3][9]

What Makes an Upset Big at the US Open Tennis

An upset at the US Open is considered “big” when a lower-ranked or unseeded player defeats a top-10 seed, a defending champion, or a widely expected finalist. The bigger the gap in ranking, the higher the stakes in the match, and the more dominant the win, the louder the shock.

Several factors amplify an upset’s impact:

• Seeding gap: A No. 100-ranked player beating a No. 1 seed carries far more weight than a No. 20 beating a No. 12
• Round of the match: A first-round exit for a top seed (like Djokovic in 2026) is more jarring than a quarterfinal loss
• Scoreline: A dominant straight-sets win over a heavy favorite hits differently than a five-set grind
• Context: If the beaten player was chasing a record or returning from injury, the stakes multiply

“An upset isn’t just about the score, it’s about what was expected and what actually happened.”

The 2026 US Open delivered on all these fronts. Navone’s win over Djokovic checked every box: massive ranking gap, first round, and a player with 24 Grand Slam titles on the other side of the net [14].

US Open 2026: Biggest Upsets and Breakout Stars, The Defining Moments

The 2026 US Open produced a wave of results that no prediction model saw coming. These weren’t close calls, they were full-blown shocks that reshaped the draw and the conversation around the sport.

The top upsets at the 2026 US Open:

Match	Winner	Loser (Seed)	Round	Score
Navone def. Djokovic	Mariano Navone	Novak Djokovic	R1	7-6, 5-7, 4-6, 6-2, 6-1
Shelton def. Alcaraz	Ben Shelton	Carlos Alcaraz (2)	QF/SF	6-7, 6-1, 6-3, 1-6, 7-6
Zheng def. Świątek	Qinwen Zheng	Iga Świątek (8)	Early rounds	7-5, 6-3
Blockx def. Cerúndolo	Alexander Blockx (28)	Francisco Cerúndolo (24)	Early rounds	,

Navone’s win was the headline. Defeating Djokovic in the first round, a 24-time Grand Slam champion, is the kind of result that defines a career [14]. Shelton’s five-set elimination of No. 2 seed Carlos Alcaraz was equally electric, sending the American crowd at Arthur Ashe Stadium into a frenzy and propelling him to his first Grand Slam final [8][11].

On the women’s side, Zheng’s takedown of Świątek opened up the draw significantly and announced her as a genuine hard-court force [9][13].

Biggest Upsets in US Open History

The US Open has a long tradition of producing shocking results. Understanding that history helps put the 2026 results in proper context.

A few landmark upsets from US Open history:

• 1994: Jaime Yzaga defeated Pete Sampras in the fourth round when Sampras was the dominant force in men’s tennis
• 2001: Lleyton Hewitt’s title run included several matches where he outlasted bigger-name opponents
• 2018: Naomi Osaka’s defeat of Serena Williams in the final, in one of the most emotionally charged matches in Slam history
• 2022: Nick Kyrgios reached the Wimbledon final as an unseeded player, a similar “underdog makes the final” arc to Shelton’s 2026 run

What makes 2026 stand out is the volume of upsets. Multiple seeded players fell early, and the men’s and women’s draws both opened up in ways that created genuine uncertainty deep into the tournament [3][9].

Who Are the Favorites for US Open 2026 and How Did They Fare

Heading into the 2026 US Open, the consensus favorites were Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz on the men’s side, and Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Świątek on the women’s side. None of them won the title.

Men’s pre-tournament favorites vs. results:

• Novak Djokovic, First-round exit vs. Navone [14]
• Carlos Alcaraz (No. 2 seed), Eliminated by Ben Shelton [8]
• Alexander Zverev, Won the title, defeating Shelton in the final [3]

Women’s pre-tournament favorites vs. results:

• Aryna Sabalenka (No. 1 seed), Lost the final to Rybakina [3]
• Iga Świątek (No. 8 seed), Upset by Qinwen Zheng in the early rounds [9]
• Elena Rybakina, Won the title, rising to world No. 1 [3]

The lesson here is one that every tennis fan, and anyone who follows racket sports tournaments, already knows: favorites are just starting points, not guarantees.

Young Players to Watch at US Open 2026, Breakout Stars

The 2026 US Open will be remembered as a coming-out party for several young players. These weren’t just one-match wonders, they made sustained runs that proved their readiness for the biggest stage.

Men’s breakout stars:

• Ben Shelton (USA): Reached his first Grand Slam final, defeating multiple seeded opponents including No. 2 Alcaraz. US and international media framed him as the new face of American men’s tennis [3][8][11].
• Mariano Navone (Argentina): His first-round win over Djokovic instantly elevated him from “promising ATP player” to “Grand Slam giant-killer” [14].
• Alexander Blockx (Belgium, No. 28 seed): Upset No. 24 Cerúndolo and reached the second week, reinforcing his status as one of the ATP’s fastest-rising young talents [9].

Women’s breakout stars:

• Qinwen Zheng: Her upset of Świątek and deep run confirmed her transition from rising prospect to consistent hard-court contender [9][13].
• Iva Jovic (USA, No. 14 seed): Straight-sets wins and a run to the later rounds before losing to Coco Gauff highlighted the depth of emerging American women’s tennis [7].

If you enjoy watching young talent develop across racket sports, the racket sports community at Rally Racket is a great place to connect with other fans who follow the sport at every level.

What Is a Breakout Star in Tennis

A breakout star in tennis is a player who, in a single tournament or season, dramatically exceeds expectations and shifts how the tennis world perceives them. It’s not just about winning, it’s about how they win and who they beat.

Three markers of a true breakout:

1. Beating a top-10 or top-5 player convincingly, not just surviving a five-setter
2. Sustaining the run, winning multiple rounds against quality opponents, not just one upset
3. Changing the narrative, analysts and media shift from “player to watch” to “player to fear”

Ben Shelton hit all three in 2026. So did Qinwen Zheng. Navone’s single win over Djokovic may be the most dramatic moment of the tournament, but his overall run will determine whether 2026 is a breakthrough or a one-match story [3][14].

How Do Underdogs Win Grand Slams, and How to Predict Tennis Upsets

Underdogs win Grand Slam matches, and occasionally entire tournaments, through a combination of tactical surprise, physical freshness, and mental freedom. The favorite carries the weight of expectation; the underdog has nothing to lose.

Common patterns in successful upsets:

• Aggressive serving: Players like Shelton use a big first serve to neutralize the opponent’s return game early
• Dictating pace: Underdogs who push the tempo force favorites out of their rhythm
• Physical condition: A fresher player in the later sets of a five-setter often outlasts a tired favorite
• Draw luck: A favorable early draw gives underdogs easier matches to build confidence before facing top seeds

Common mistakes in predicting tennis upsets:

• Overweighting head-to-head records (surface and form matter more in a single match)
• Ignoring recent tournament results from the weeks before a Slam
• Dismissing players who are “peaking” on a specific surface
• Underestimating the impact of crowd support (Shelton at Arthur Ashe had a massive home advantage) [8]

For anyone who wants to improve their racket sports skills and understand how strategy shapes match outcomes, these same principles apply whether you’re watching the US Open or stepping onto a local court. Check out how local clubs host tournaments to see competitive dynamics at every level.

US Open 2026 Dark Horse Contenders and Wild Card Picks

Before the tournament, several players were flagged as dark horses, players outside the top-5 seeds with a realistic path to a deep run. In 2026, those predictions proved accurate.

Dark horses who delivered:

• Alexander Zverev, Not a true dark horse given his ranking, but his title win as a non-favorite in the final bracket confirmed the unpredictability of the draw [3]
• Alexander Blockx, The No. 28 seed was a genuine dark horse who backed up the billing [9]
• Iva Jovic, As No. 14 seed, her run exceeded most pre-tournament expectations [7]

How the draw affects upsets: The US Open draw is a single-elimination bracket, which means a favorable early draw can allow a lower-ranked player to build momentum before facing the top seeds. In 2026, the draw opened up significantly after Djokovic’s first-round exit, giving several mid-ranked players a cleaner path through the men’s bracket [14].

What Injuries Could Create Upsets at US Open 2026

Injuries are one of the biggest wildcard factors at any Grand Slam. A player managing a nagging issue through a five-set match is a very different opponent from a fully fit version of the same player.

At the 2026 US Open, injury concerns and physical fatigue played a background role in several results. The hard courts at Flushing Meadows are notoriously demanding on the body, faster surface, loud crowd, late-night matches, and players arriving from a heavy clay and grass season often carry accumulated wear into the tournament.

Key injury-related factors to watch at any US Open:

• Players coming off a heavy Wimbledon or Olympic schedule with limited recovery time
• Wrist, knee, and shoulder issues that affect serving and groundstroke power
• Heat and humidity at Flushing Meadows, which accelerates fatigue in long matches
• Players who have had mid-season surgeries or returns from extended absences

Djokovic’s first-round loss to Navone was not publicly attributed to injury, but his form and physical condition heading into the tournament were part of the broader conversation [14].

US Open 2026 Seeding Predictions, How the Bracket Shaped the Story

The seedings at the 2026 US Open were shaken up almost immediately. When Djokovic, arguably the most decorated player in the history of the sport, exits in Round 1, the entire men’s half of the draw shifts.

How the bracket unfolded:

• Djokovic’s early exit removed the biggest obstacle for players in his half of the draw [14]
• Alcaraz’s loss to Shelton cleared the path for Shelton’s run to the final [8]
• Sabalenka’s loss in the women’s final to Rybakina meant the No. 1 seed left without the title [3]
• Świątek’s early exit to Zheng further opened the women’s draw [9]

The 2026 US Open is a strong reminder that seedings are predictions, not results. For fans who enjoy the competitive side of racket sports at any level, understanding how tournament draws work adds a whole new layer to watching, and playing, the game.

Conclusion, What the 2026 US Open Means for Tennis Fans and Players

The US Open 2026: biggest upsets and breakout stars will be talked about for years. Navone over Djokovic. Shelton’s run to the final. Rybakina’s title. Zheng’s statement win over Świątek. These results aren’t random noise, they’re signals that the sport is in the middle of a genuine generational shift.

Actionable next steps for fans and players:

• Watch the breakout stars closely: Shelton, Zheng, Navone, and Blockx will all be ones to follow at the Australian Open and beyond
• Study what made the upsets work: Aggressive serving, tactical variety, and mental resilience were common threads across all the big wins
• Apply the lessons to your own game: Whether you play tennis, pickleball, padel, or any other racket sport, the principles of reading an opponent and staying mentally sharp under pressure translate directly to your court
• Join the conversation: The racket sports community is full of players who love breaking down big matches and sharing what they learn

The 2026 US Open proved that no lead is safe, no favorite is certain, and no underdog should be counted out. That’s what makes this sport, and every racket sport, worth playing and watching.

FAQ

Who won the US Open 2026 men’s singles? Alexander Zverev won the men’s singles title, defeating Ben Shelton 6-3, 7-6, 5-7, 6-2 in the final on September 13, 2026 [3].

Who won the US Open 2026 women’s singles? Elena Rybakina won the women’s title, beating top seed Aryna Sabalenka 6-4, 5-7, 6-2. The win gave Rybakina her third Grand Slam title and pushed her to world No. 1 [3].

What was the biggest upset at the 2026 US Open? Mariano Navone’s five-set first-round win over Novak Djokovic, a 24-time Grand Slam champion, was widely considered the biggest shock of the tournament [14].

Did Ben Shelton win the US Open 2026? No. Shelton reached his first Grand Slam final but lost to Alexander Zverev. His run, including a win over No. 2 seed Carlos Alcaraz, was still widely celebrated as a major breakthrough [3][8].

What happened to Novak Djokovic at the 2026 US Open? Djokovic lost in the first round to Mariano Navone in five sets (7-6, 5-7, 4-6, 6-2, 6-1), one of the most shocking early exits in recent Grand Slam history [14].

Who are the breakout stars of the 2026 US Open? Ben Shelton, Mariano Navone, Qinwen Zheng, Alexander Blockx, and Iva Jovic were the most talked-about breakout performers of the tournament [3][7][9][14].

How did Qinwen Zheng do at the 2026 US Open? Zheng upset No. 8 seed Iga Świątek 7-5, 6-3 and made a deep run into the tournament, confirming her status as a top hard-court contender [9][13].

What is a dark horse at the US Open? A dark horse is a player outside the top seeds who has a realistic chance of making a deep run. In 2026, Alexander Blockx and Iva Jovic both delivered on dark horse billing [7][9].

How does the US Open draw affect upsets? A favorable draw can allow lower-ranked players to build momentum before facing top seeds. Djokovic’s first-round exit in 2026 opened the men’s draw significantly for mid-ranked players [14].

Why do underdogs win at Grand Slams? Underdogs succeed through aggressive tactics, physical freshness, mental freedom, and sometimes crowd support. They often have less to lose, which allows them to play more freely than the favorite.

Who is Mariano Navone? Mariano Navone is an Argentine tennis player who became a household name after defeating Novak Djokovic in the first round of the 2026 US Open, one of the biggest upsets in recent Grand Slam history [14].

Will the 2026 US Open results change the ATP and WTA rankings? Yes. Rybakina’s title win pushed her to world No. 1 on the WTA rankings [3]. Shelton’s run and Zverev’s title also moved both players up significantly in the ATP standings.

References

[1] Index – https://www.usopen.org/en_US/scores/completed_matches/index.html [3] Live – https://www.cbssports.com/tennis/news/us-open-2026-results-scores-brackets/live/ [7] 25498174 Us Open Tennis 2026 Results Thursdays Bracket Winners Losers And Highlights – https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25498174-us-open-tennis-2026-results-thursdays-bracket-winners-losers-and-highlights [8] 25498355 Us Open Tennis 2026 Results Fridays Bracket Winners Losers And Highlights – https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25498355-us-open-tennis-2026-results-fridays-bracket-winners-losers-and-highlights [9] 25497684 Us Open Tennis 2026 Results Wednesdays Bracket Winners Losers And Highlights – https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25497684-us-open-tennis-2026-results-wednesdays-bracket-winners-losers-and-highlights